So next week is the UK General Election 2015. Great Britain currently has a lot of uncertainty looming over it, but luckily for you Lovell Johns have created a map, to help us visualise and gain a better understanding of where the election outcome may be decided.
The map was created using data from Election Forecast which shows the likely marginals across Britain. This data isn’t based on the percentage swing needed for a constituency to change hands, but instead based on where election forecasters are unsure which political party will win a constituency.
As you may already know, there’s a major element of uncertainty in this General Election, and the public are asking themselves if one party may win enough votes to win the election by an overall majority, or whether some form of relationship is to be formed between a few different parties.
The map has to be taken with a pinch of salt, as the weaknesses in the data can obviously make for less reliable result. Can you remember back to the 2010 General Election? The forecast predictions were quite weakly correlated with the actual final outcome of the election.
Here are some key points about this map:
This map shows the seats where the Election Forecast model is less than 95% confident which political party will win seats in a particular constituency
The map is only as good as the forecast model used
There isn’t much constituency-level polling in the UK, so predictions are not as strong
However, the map is likely to indicate many of the key seats where the election outcome will be determined
The map and Election Forecast model only covers Great Britain. The data and the political dynamic is different in Northern Ireland so no seats have been included
A weakness of the model is that it isn’t strong at predicting how newer parties, such as UKIP, will fare in the upcoming election
What do you think the election outcome will result in on May 7th? Tell us in the comments below. Click here to see a more detailed version of the map, as well as a list of likely marginals for seats across the UK.